Webinar: Scenario narratives for the future of the European process industry

Europe’s energy intensive industries chemicals, refining, steel, cement, glass and others – are undergoing significant structural change. In just three years, announced closures have reached almost 10% of European chemical production capacity, with other sectors facing similar pressures. This raises a practical question for policy makers and industrial decision makers alike: what plausible futures should we consider when thinking about competitiveness, Net Zero, and European autonomy? 

AMIGDALA project supports decision makers in governments and industry in defining and evaluating pathways towards circular, climate neutral and competitive European industries. Within this broader effort, AMIGDALA is developing a set of scenario narratives that will serve as structured inputs for its modelling work, rather than forecasts or readymade policy answers. 

We are pleased to invite you to a webinar to present and discuss these scenario narratives for the future of the European process industry. 

Date: 5 May 
Time: 16:30–17:30 CET 
Format: Online (Zoom) 

What we will cover 

During this session, we will: 

• Explain the method used in AMIGDALA to build scenario narratives from external drivers (markets, technology, geopolitics) and policy levers (regulation, incentives, investments), and how these narratives will be used as inputs to integrated models. 

• Present roughly 20 scenario archetypes that combine different choices on these drivers and levers and indicate how they relate to EU objectives such as climate neutrality, competitiveness and strategic autonomy. 

• Focus on five selected scenarios that will be modelled in detail within AMIGDALA, showing how they translate into inputs such as boundary conditions for energy use, emissions, material flows and industrial production. 

Why this may be relevant for you 

The webinar is designed to: 

• Clarify the scenario space that AMIGDALA will use for its analyses, so you can see how different policy and investment levers are reflected – without claiming to predict the future. 

• Set realistic expectations of what AMIGDALA’s scenario based modelling can (and cannot) provide to support future decisions on industrial transformation. 

• Offer an opportunity for feedback on the plausibility and usefulness of the scenarios, helping to ensure that the modelling work reflects real policy and industry concerns. 

• Allow you to position your own questions and strategies in relation to the scenarios under development, as a basis for further dialogue. 

This webinar is an introduction to the AMIGDALA scenario work, with time for questions and comments. It is intended to make the underlying assumptions and choices transparent, rather than to deliver final recommendations.